TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Dai Dai
- Kalshi
Dai Dai - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 13, 2026
Closed: Sep 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity trends in the music video landscape, showcasing how digital platforms influence music consumption and promotion strategies.
Kalshi
The event determines the top-ranked music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - United States chart for September 11, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video holds the number one position on the specified chart for that date. All markets share identical secondary rules, clarifying that neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive. The resolution hinges solely on YouTube's official chart data for the given day, with no consideration for ties or ambiguous rankings.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on pre-release hype, artist popularity, or label promotion, this market aggregates the wisdom of many individual traders. This can lead to odds that diverge from initial expectations, particularly as new information emerges. It’s common to see the market adjust rapidly to unexpected trends or viral moments, potentially offering a more dynamic and accurate assessment of which music video is likely to achieve the top spot on YouTube than static pre-event predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each potential music video, and the price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of its probability of winning. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and the implied probability of that music video being the top daily video rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and trading activity, providing a constantly updated forecast of the outcome. The current trading volume indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding each potential winner.
This market resolves around Sep 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official YouTube rankings for the top daily music video in the USA on September 11, 2026, will be used to determine the winning outcome. The video holding the number one position at the end of that day will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube’s official charts, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram could dramatically boost a music video's viewership. Major celebrity endorsements or appearances in a video could also drive increased attention. Pre-release hype, including the release of teasers or behind-the-scenes footage, can influence early trading activity. Finally, any news related to the artists involved, such as album releases or tour announcements, could impact the market as traders adjust their expectations based on evolving circumstances.
