TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date in 2026. It reflects viewer engagement and popularity trends in music video content over a single day, offering insight into cultural moments and audience preferences as captured by YouTube's real-time analytics.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified music video ranks #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos - United States chart for October 8, 2026. All markets share identical resolution criteria, differing only in the named music video being evaluated. None of the markets or associated products are endorsed by YouTube; references to YouTube are purely descriptive and do not imply affiliation or endorsement. The outcome hinges solely on YouTube's official chart data for the designated date, with no additional qualifications or exceptions.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds for this event to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral music video success is highly speculative. However, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individuals, potentially offering a more dynamic and real-time assessment of a video’s chances than static pre-release predictions. If analysts were to release predictions, a comparison could be made to see if the wisdom of the crowd, as reflected in this market, aligns with expert opinions regarding which music video will achieve the top spot.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a particular music video will rank number one, they will buy contracts for that outcome, driving up the price and decreasing the implied probability of other videos topping the chart.
This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official ranking of music videos on YouTube’s Daily Top Music Videos chart for the United States, dated October 8, 2026. The music video that holds the number one position on that chart will be considered the winning outcome for this market. The data will be sourced from publicly available information on the YouTube platform.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. The release of highly anticipated music videos from popular artists, viral trends on social media platforms like TikTok, and significant media coverage of a particular song or artist could all shift market sentiment. Unexpected collaborations or controversies surrounding artists could also play a role. Furthermore, changes in YouTube’s algorithm or chart methodology could influence the rankings and, consequently, the prices in this market. Any news or event that affects a video’s potential for viewership and engagement could move the odds.
