TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Draw You Out (From The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - The Album)
Description
This event tracks which music video will achieve the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date in the future. It reflects viewer preferences and trends in music video popularity over a single day, offering insight into what content resonates most with audiences at that moment.
Kalshi
The event determines the top-ranked music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - United States chart for October 6, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video holds the number one position on the specified chart for that date. All markets share the same resolution criterion but apply to different videos, making the outcome dependent on YouTube's real-time data for that day. The event does not involve any endorsement from YouTube, and references to YouTube are used descriptively. The resolution is based solely on the chart ranking, with no additional conditions or calculations required beyond verifying the top position on the stated date.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence. Often, this market reflects a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially identifying emerging trends or underappreciated contenders that traditional analysts might overlook. While analysts rely on historical data and industry knowledge, this market incorporates a broader range of information and real-time sentiment. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently, or where analysts' models may not fully capture the dynamic nature of music video popularity. It's a fascinating comparison of different forecasting approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each music video’s likelihood of topping the daily charts. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective predictions of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe a particular video is likely to win, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, providing a constantly updated assessment of the most probable outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the music video with the highest number of views on YouTube in the USA on October 6, 2026, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube's official statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the top daily music video. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their positions in the market.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major artist announcements, surprise album releases, or viral marketing campaigns could all impact a video’s potential viewership. Unexpected collaborations or appearances by popular figures within music videos could also generate substantial buzz. Shifts in social media trends and the emergence of new challenges or memes related to specific songs could also influence viewing numbers. Furthermore, any controversies or positive press surrounding an artist or video could lead to changes in market sentiment and trading activity, impacting the odds for this market.
