TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
K/DA - FIRESTARTER ft. MIYEON and SOYEON of i-dle, Sophie Powers, Mimi Webb (Official Music Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. It reflects audience engagement and popularity trends in music video content over a single day.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified music video secures the top position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart for the United States on October 31, 2026. The outcome hinges solely on YouTube's official chart ranking for that date. All markets explicitly state that neither YouTube nor any associated entities have endorsed these products, with any references to YouTube serving only a descriptive function and implying no formal affiliation between YouTube and the market operator. The competition involves multiple distinct music video entries, each with its own dedicated market, and resolution depends entirely on the chart's ranking at the specified time and date.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. Unlike polls or expert opinions that rely on subjective assessments, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of many traders. While analysts might offer predictions based on past performance or popularity, this market reflects real-money wagers on the likely outcome. It’s often found that prediction markets can be more accurate than traditional forecasting methods, especially when dealing with complex or uncertain events, though this is not always the case.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the probability of a specific music video topping the charts. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and liquidity are influenced by factors such as media coverage, social media trends, and the release of new music videos, all of which impact trader behavior.
This market resolves around Nov 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on the official ranking of music videos on YouTube’s Daily Top Music Videos United States chart dated October 31, 2026. The video holding the number one position will determine the winning outcome. The resolution process relies on publicly available data and avoids reliance on any single source or subjective interpretation to ensure a transparent and objective result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. The release of highly anticipated music videos from popular artists in the weeks leading up to October 31, 2026, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major social media trends or viral challenges featuring specific songs could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to artists, such as album releases or controversies, could also impact the market. Furthermore, changes in YouTube’s algorithm or chart methodology could introduce uncertainty and volatility, causing traders to reassess their positions.
