TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
K/DA - FIRESTARTER ft. MIYEON and SOYEON of i-dle, Sophie Powers, Mimi Webb (Official Music Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. Participants speculate on whether particular music videos will top the chart, reflecting audience engagement and popularity trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the outcome based on YouTube Charts' Daily Top Music Videos ranking for the United States on October 30, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that video ranks #1 on the chart for that date. All markets operate independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. The rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The resolution hinges solely on the official YouTube Charts data for the specified date and region.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on pre-release hype, artist popularity, and label promotion, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, factoring in real-time viewership data and unexpected viral trends. Discrepancies can arise when a video unexpectedly gains traction or fails to meet expectations, leading to shifts in the market that may not be immediately reflected in external predictions. It's a dynamic comparison, as both sources attempt to forecast the same outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible music video, and the price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people bet on a particular video, its price increases, and the implied probability of that outcome rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price reflects the collective belief of all participants trading on Kalshi regarding which video will ultimately achieve the top spot.
This market resolves around Nov 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the music video with the highest number of views on YouTube in the USA on October 30, 2026, as reported by YouTube’s official statistics, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will be verified to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be paid out according to their positions in the market.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Unexpected collaborations between artists, viral marketing campaigns, or even controversies surrounding a particular video could all impact viewership numbers. The release of official music video trailers or teasers, major award nominations, and prominent placements in popular media are also potential catalysts. Shifts in YouTube’s algorithm or changes to its trending video system could also have a substantial effect on which videos gain visibility and ultimately reach the top spot.
