TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Ramayana: Ravana Tandav (Song) | Namit M, Nitesh T | Ranbir, Yash | AR Rahman, Vishal D, Kumar V
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count in the United States on a specific day, reflecting real-time viewer engagement and popularity trends. The outcome is determined by YouTube's official chart data for that date.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes only if its specified music video occupies the top position on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos - United States chart for October 23, 2026. The competition involves multiple distinct music videos, each with its own unique title, artist, and in some cases, performance context (e.g., a fashion show). All markets share the same resolution criterion—rank #1 on the designated chart for the specified date—and all explicitly state that YouTube has not endorsed these markets or products. References to YouTube in the rules are purely descriptive and do not imply any affiliation or endorsement. No market is resolved unless the exact named video achieves the top spot on the official YouTube chart for that day.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of factors than traditional predictions, incorporating information from diverse sources and potentially identifying under- or over-valued outcomes. While analysts may focus on established artists and promotional campaigns, the market can quickly adjust to viral trends or unexpected popularity surges. Discrepancies between the two can signal potential opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular music video’s likelihood of topping the charts. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy into a specific outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds continuously adapt to new information and changing perceptions.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the music video with the highest number of views on YouTube in the USA on October 23, 2026, will be declared the winner. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube’s official statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning video. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major artist announcements, surprise album releases, or viral marketing campaigns could all shift the odds. Unexpected collaborations or controversies involving artists could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, changes in YouTube’s algorithm or trending video features could favor certain types of content, influencing viewership numbers. The release of official music video trailers and pre-save campaigns are also likely to generate trading activity and price fluctuations in this market.
