TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Olivia Rodrigo - expectations (feat. Chappell Roan) (Official Music Video)
The Live Footage That Launched Van Halen on MTV | Oakland Coliseum 1981
Description
This event tracks which music video will achieve the highest view count in the United States on a specific day, reflecting viewer preferences and trends in online music consumption. The outcome is determined by real-time viewer engagement metrics on a popular video-sharing platform.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if its specified music video secures the top position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart for the United States on October 19, 2026. The chart ranking is the sole determinant of resolution, with no consideration for ties, fractional rankings, or other qualifying criteria. All markets operate independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to the platform are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The event focuses exclusively on the stated chart position as of the specified date, with no additional performance metrics or contextual factors influencing the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific event. Unlike polls or expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to express their beliefs about the likelihood of each music video reaching the top spot. While analysts may offer predictions based on factors like pre-release hype or artist popularity, this market reflects a real-money incentive for accurate forecasting, potentially leading to different insights than those offered by conventional sources. It’s important to consider both perspectives when evaluating the potential outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in each potential outcome, offering a dynamic view of expectations as we approach the event date. The current volume traded is $0.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which music video is ranked number one on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos United States chart dated October 19, 2026. The outcome will be based on the official chart rankings published by YouTube, providing a transparent and objective determination of the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram could boost a video’s popularity, increasing its chances of reaching the top spot. Major promotional campaigns, surprise collaborations between artists, or even controversies surrounding a particular video could also influence trading activity. The release of highly anticipated music videos in the days leading up to October 19, 2026, will likely have a substantial impact, as will any significant changes in YouTube’s algorithm or charting methodology. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding market movements.
