TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Olivia Rodrigo - expectations (feat. Chappell Roan) (Official Music Video)
The Live Footage That Launched Van Halen on MTV | Oakland Coliseum 1981
Description
This event tracks which music video will achieve the highest view count in the United States on a specific day, reflecting viewer preferences and trends in digital content consumption. The outcome is determined by YouTube's official chart data for that date.
Kalshi
Each market corresponds to a distinct music video contender, with resolution dependent on that video achieving the top position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart for the United States on October 18, 2026. Only the video that secures the number one spot triggers a 'Yes' outcome for its associated market; all others resolve as 'No.' The rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube branding are purely descriptive, emphasizing that the charts serve as the sole basis for determination without additional qualifications or exceptions.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions within this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as comprehensive pre-release music video performance predictions are not widely available. However, prediction markets often aggregate diverse perspectives and can reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially identifying emerging trends or underappreciated contenders that may not be captured in individual analyst reports. If analysts were to provide forecasts, it would be interesting to see if their predictions align with the probabilities expressed by traders in this market. The market’s dynamic nature allows for continuous recalibration as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the probability of a specific music video ranking #1. The price of each contract reflects the current market consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of each outcome. The market’s price discovery process allows for a transparent and efficient way to gauge expectations surrounding the top daily music video.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the official YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos United States chart dated Oct 18, 2026, will be used to determine which music video held the #1 position. The market will settle based on this publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor the chart’s release to understand the final outcome and the resulting settlement of their contracts.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Pre-release hype surrounding new music video releases, including social media trends and streaming numbers, will likely be major drivers. Unexpected collaborations or viral marketing campaigns could also shift the odds. Furthermore, any news regarding artist popularity or album sales could influence trader sentiment. A sudden surge in views for a particular video in the days leading up to Oct 18, 2026, would almost certainly cause a significant price movement in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential shifts in the probabilities.
