TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Riley Green, Peyton Manning - Alabama Vs. Tennessee (Official Video)
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date. Participants speculate on whether a particular video will top the rankings, reflecting real-time viewer engagement and popularity trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the winner based on which specified music video ranks number one on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos chart for the United States on October 16, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that specific video achieves the top position. All markets operate independently, with no direct interaction between them. YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The resolution hinges solely on YouTube's official chart data for the designated date.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates the ability to incorporate a wider range of information than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. While analysts may focus on established artists and trends, the market reflects the views of many participants, capturing unexpected viral potential or shifts in public taste. Discrepancies between the two can highlight overlooked factors or biases in either approach, offering a more nuanced understanding of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different music videos. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that video topping the daily charts. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined solely by supply and demand within Kalshi, and represents the cost to take a position on a specific outcome. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting which video will achieve the highest view count.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the music video with the highest number of views on YouTube in the USA on October 16, 2026, as reported by YouTube’s official statistics, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will not rely on subjective interpretation or external judgment. The final reported view count will be the deciding factor for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major album releases from popular artists, unexpected collaborations, or viral marketing campaigns could all shift the odds. Significant social media trends or controversies surrounding particular artists could also influence public viewing habits. Furthermore, YouTube algorithm changes or promotional pushes by the platform itself could impact video visibility and view counts. Any news related to artist popularity, music video quality, or promotional efforts will likely be reflected in the trading activity and price fluctuations of this market.
