TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count on YouTube's US daily chart for a specific date in 2026. Each market corresponds to a different music video, and the outcome depends solely on YouTube's official chart ranking for that day.
Kalshi
The event determines the top-ranked music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - United States chart for October 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video occupies the #1 position on the chart for the specified date. All markets share the same resolution criterion, based exclusively on YouTube's official chart data. The secondary rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube. The resolution hinges entirely on the chart position of the listed videos, with no additional performance metrics or contextual factors influencing the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts for music video performance. While music industry experts often predict which songs will be popular, their predictions aren’t typically expressed as probabilities like those found here. This market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than individual expert opinions. It’s possible that the market odds will align with analyst expectations, or they may diverge based on factors not fully captured in conventional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in the probability of each music video being the top daily video. Prices are determined by supply and demand; as more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market, making it a dynamic indicator of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top daily music video on YouTube for that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from YouTube’s official charts and rankings. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of which music video achieved the highest daily viewership and therefore wins this market. The final outcome will be based on official YouTube data, not on any subjective interpretation.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram could boost a music video's popularity. Major artist endorsements or appearances in popular media could also drive viewership. Additionally, the release of official music video remixes or live performances might generate renewed interest. Any significant news or events related to the artists involved, or changes in YouTube’s algorithm, could also influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.
