TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]
Như Một Người Rưng - Chủ Tịch Mai x Giám Đốc Hà | Official M/V
K/DA - FIRESTARTER ft. MIYEON and SOYEON of i-dle, Sophie Powers, Mimi Webb (Official Music Video)
Veezha Veera (From "OM Chapter 1: Udhiram - The Blood Wood") [Hindi]
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest global viewership on YouTube for a specific day, reflecting popular trends and audience preferences in the music industry. The outcome depends entirely on real-time viewer engagement and chart performance.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified music video ranks #1 on YouTube Charts’ Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart for October 31, 2026. Only one video can occupy the top position on the chart for that date, meaning only the market corresponding to that video will resolve to 'Yes,' with all others resolving to 'No.' The rules clarify that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no implied affiliation or endorsement by YouTube or Kalshi.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on pre-release hype or artist popularity, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as the market can quickly adjust to unexpected developments or shifts in public opinion. Comparing this market to polls or expert predictions can reveal whether the crowd anticipates a surprise outcome or aligns with conventional wisdom regarding the top daily music video.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different music videos. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that video becoming the top daily music video on YouTube on the specified date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the most likely outcome. This mechanism allows for efficient price discovery, as the market incorporates new information and changing expectations. The current implied probabilities are visible on the dashboard.
This market resolves around Nov 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the top daily music video on YouTube for October 31, 2026, as officially reported by YouTube’s public charts, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent result. Traders should monitor official YouTube charts as the resolution date approaches to understand how the market aligns with the actual outcome.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected viral trends, major artist announcements (new album releases, collaborations), or controversies surrounding particular artists could all influence trading activity. A sudden surge in views for a specific music video, driven by a social media challenge or a celebrity endorsement, would likely shift the odds. Furthermore, any changes to YouTube’s algorithm that impact video visibility could also play a role. Monitoring music news, social media trends, and YouTube analytics will be crucial for understanding potential market movements leading up to Nov 14, 2026.
