TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip
Description
This event tracks which music video achieves the highest view count globally on YouTube for a specific day. It reflects audience engagement and popularity trends in music video content over a 24-hour period on a major streaming platform.
Kalshi
The event determines the top-ranked music video on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart for October 13, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific music video, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that particular video holds the number one position on the specified chart for that date. All markets share identical secondary rules clarifying that neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive without implying affiliation or endorsement. Only the video occupying the #1 spot drives resolution; no ties, partial rankings, or alternative metrics affect outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting viral music video success is highly speculative. However, if music industry analysts were to release predictions for the top daily music video on YouTube for the specified date, it would be interesting to see how their qualitative assessments align with the quantitative probabilities expressed by traders in this market. Discrepancies could highlight areas where the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ diverges from expert opinion, or where the market anticipates factors not considered by analysts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of a particular music video topping the charts. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability of that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract represents the payout if that music video is ultimately confirmed as the top daily video on YouTube on October 13, 2026.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the music video with the highest number of views on YouTube globally on October 13, 2026, as reported by YouTube’s official statistics, will be considered the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and will not rely on any subjective interpretation or external judgment. Traders will then receive payouts based on the final probabilities reflected in the market prices.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major artist announcements, such as new album releases or surprise collaborations, would likely shift probabilities. Viral marketing campaigns or unexpected social media trends could also boost a video’s viewership. Furthermore, any controversies or positive publicity surrounding an artist or song could influence public interest and, consequently, the market’s odds. The release of official music video teasers or pre-save campaigns could also provide early indicators of potential success, causing traders to adjust their positions in this market.
