TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Xamdam Sobirov - Peshta / Хамдам Собиров - Пешта / Video Klip
Aathi Iva Yarraa Lyric | SCENE | Suriya | Nazriya Nazim | Naslen | Sushin Shyam | JithuMadhavan
GAVIN:D x Violette Wautier - อย่ามากกว่าฉันก็พอ [IN MY ROOM SESSION]
Description
This event tracks which music video will achieve the highest view count on YouTube's global daily chart for a specific date. Participants speculate on whether particular music videos will top the chart, reflecting audience engagement and popularity trends.
Kalshi
The event determines the winner based on which specified music video attains the highest position on YouTube's Daily Top Music Videos - Global chart for October 12, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different music video, and resolution depends solely on YouTube's official chart ranking for that date. All markets are independent, with each video having an equal chance to win based on its performance. Neither YouTube nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and references to YouTube are used descriptively without implying affiliation or endorsement.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on factors like artist popularity and promotional efforts, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential surprises. Discrepancies can arise from differing assumptions about viral potential or unexpected trends in music consumption. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outperforming static analyst predictions in its accuracy.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different music videos. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that video topping the daily charts. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence price movements, creating a dynamic environment where odds can shift quickly based on perceived value and new information. This allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official daily YouTube charts are published and the top music video is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total view count for each music video within the 24-hour period ending on October 12, 2026. The video with the highest verified view count will be declared the winner of this market, and contracts for that outcome will pay out to their holders.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major artist announcements, surprise album releases, or viral marketing campaigns could all shift the odds. Unexpected collaborations or controversies surrounding artists could also influence viewership. Furthermore, trends on social media platforms like TikTok can rapidly drive traffic to music videos, potentially causing a sudden surge in popularity. Any news related to YouTube's algorithm or promotional features could also move this market, as these factors directly affect video visibility.
