TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
BbY WOW
- Kalshi
BbY WOW - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether specific songs appear in the top positions of a major music chart in a particular week. It reflects the competitive nature of the music industry, where artists and fans closely monitor chart performance as an indicator of popularity and success.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified song ranks within the top ten positions on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending September 19, 2026. The resolution depends solely on the chart placement of the named track during that exact week. All markets explicitly state that references to Billboard and the Hot 100 are purely descriptive and do not imply endorsement or affiliation between Billboard and the platform hosting these markets. This structure allows multiple individual song markets to be evaluated against the same chart and date, each determining its outcome based on whether that particular song achieves top-10 status.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for the Billboard Hot 100. Music charts are notoriously difficult to predict, relying on complex factors like streaming numbers, radio play, and sales data. While music critics and industry analysts offer opinions, this market represents a collective forecast from a diverse group of traders. It will be interesting to see if the wisdom of the crowd, as reflected in this market, aligns with or diverges from expert predictions as the chart week approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in whether a song will be in the Top 10. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the market. The current trading volume suggests a moderate level of interest in predicting the Billboard Hot 100, and prices are likely to become more refined as we get closer to the chart’s release.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of September 19, 2026, is published and verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will reflect which songs ultimately achieve a position within the Top 10, based on Billboard’s official methodology. Traders will then be able to see how their predictions aligned with the actual chart results, and contracts will be settled accordingly based on whether their chosen songs made the Top 10.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected surges in streaming numbers for a particular song, major promotional pushes by artists or record labels, and viral trends on social media platforms are all potential catalysts. The release of highly anticipated albums or singles in the weeks leading up to the chart date could also shift the odds. Any significant news or events surrounding artists – such as award nominations or controversies – could also impact public interest and, consequently, the performance of their songs on the Billboard Hot 100.
