TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 21, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether any of a specific list of songs will appear in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of June 27, 2026. The market is designed to predict the chart performance of these particular tracks during that specific week.
If BE HER is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Billie Jean is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Boston is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Choosin' Texas is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If EARRINGS is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Folded is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If hate that i made you love me is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If I CAN'T LOVE YOU ANYMORE is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If I Just Might is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If I Knew It, I Knew You is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Janice STFU is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Man I Need is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If National Treasures is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ran To Atlanta is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Risk It All is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shabang is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If So Easy (To Fall In Love) is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If STATESIDE is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the cure is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Whisper My Name is Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Jun 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction and often diverge from traditional music industry analysts and chart forecasters. While analysts rely on radio airplay, streaming data, and historical chart patterns, prediction markets aggregate thousands of individual bets, sometimes surfacing emerging trends or undervalued songs earlier. Comparing Kalshi odds to major music publications' predictions can reveal where the crowd sees value differently, though both approaches aim to forecast the same Billboard outcome.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, each song eligible for top-10 placement is priced as a separate contract reflecting the probability traders assign to its inclusion in the final chart. Prices range from 0 to 100 cents, where higher prices indicate stronger consensus that a track will crack the top 10. Traders buy or sell these contracts based on streaming momentum, radio support, and cultural buzz, with the market price updating continuously until the resolution date as new information emerges.
The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, shortly after the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of June 27, 2026 is officially published. The outcome is determined by the actual top-10 rankings released by Billboard, which are based on a weighted formula combining radio airplay, streaming activity, and sales data from the tracking week. Once the official chart is released, each contract settles according to whether the corresponding song appears in the top 10 or not.
Major signals include new song releases or surprise drops from established artists, viral social media moments or TikTok trends, radio playlist additions or removals, streaming platform algorithm changes, award show performances, and celebrity endorsements. Chart-eligible songs gaining or losing radio support, unexpected chart debuts, or shifts in listener demographics can all shift trader expectations. Additionally, competing releases from rival artists, touring announcements, and real-time streaming data leaks can create volatility in odds as traders reassess which tracks will ultimately land in the top 10.