TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Choosin' Texas
- Kalshi
Choosin' Texas - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Closed: Aug 2, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks whether specific songs appear in the top positions of a major music chart for a particular week in the future. Each market focuses on a different song, evaluating its performance against industry benchmarks. The outcomes depend entirely on the chart's rankings as they are published at the specified time.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the named song appears within the top ten positions on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending August 8, 2026. The evaluation is strictly based on the official Billboard Hot 100 rankings published for that week. All markets explicitly state that references to Billboard and the Hot 100 are purely descriptive and do not imply any endorsement or affiliation between the entities involved. No additional conditions or qualifications affect the resolution beyond the chart position criterion.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a blend of expert opinions and crowd-driven speculation. Analysts may weigh factors like artist momentum, radio play, and streaming trends, while traders price in real-time data and sentiment. Sometimes this market diverges, showing higher or lower chances for certain songs based on recent events or unexpected viral moments. Tracking both sources together can give a fuller picture of expectations for the upcoming Billboard chart.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the odds for this market through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers agree on price. The current implied probability reflects the collective assessment of all participants about which songs will make the top 10. Market depth and liquidity, represented by volume of $6,072, help determine how stable these prices are. As new information emerges — such as chart performance or media coverage — prices adjust dynamically to reflect changing expectations.
This market resolves around Aug 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of August 8, 2026 is published and verifiable from credible public reporting. The final ranking of songs will determine which contracts are settled as winners, based on the chart’s authoritative listing. Until that point, traders can continue to adjust positions as new data influences expectations.
