TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 17, 7:18 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Rory McIlroy will finish in the top 10 at all four golf major tournaments during 2026, with a current probability of 35.0%. A secondary outcome asks whether any golfer will achieve top-10 finishes across all four majors, currently at 34.0%. Resolution is determined by official results from golf's major tournaments as they conclude throughout 2026. Watch for McIlroy's performance at each major championship as the year progresses, with the final major scheduled for July 26, 2026.
A golfer must finish in the top 10 (including ties) in all four designated major championship tournaments during 2026 to satisfy the resolution criteria. The four majors are The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, and The Open Championship. Each individual golfer outcome resolves independently to Yes if they achieve top-10 finishes across all four majors. Additionally, a catch-all outcome resolves to Yes if any golfer achieves this feat.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi for Top 10 Finisher in All 4 Golf Majors often diverge from traditional sportsbook odds because they reflect real-time trader consensus rather than fixed betting lines. Sportsbooks typically adjust odds more slowly and build in larger margins, while prediction markets update continuously as new information emerges. Comparing Kalshi prices to major sportsbooks can reveal undervalued or overvalued golfers. Prediction markets reward accurate forecasting, so sharp traders often identify edges that sportsbooks have not yet priced in. Monitor both venues to spot discrepancies in how they value a golfer's chances of top-10 finishes across all four majors.
The Top 10 Finisher in All 4 Golf Majors market resolves on Jul 26, 2026, after the conclusion of the final major championship in the contract period. Resolution depends on whether the specified golfer finishes in the top 10 of all four major tournaments. Each major tournament has its own leaderboard and official results, which determine the outcome. The market will settle based on verified final standings from the PGA Tour and official major championship records. Traders should monitor each golfer's performance throughout the season, as a single missed top-10 finish in any major will determine the contract's final value.
Several key signals can shift odds for Top 10 Finisher in All 4 Golf Majors. Tournament results are the primary driver: a golfer's top-10 finish or miss at any major significantly impacts their contract price. Injury announcements, withdrawal news, or changes in playing schedule can trigger sharp price moves. Form trends across PGA Tour events, world ranking changes, and course-fit analysis also influence trader sentiment. Weather conditions and course setup at each major venue may favor certain playing styles. Media coverage of player momentum, equipment changes, or coaching adjustments can sway market perception. As each major concludes, the market reprices based on whether the golfer achieved the required top-10 finish, with prices converging toward zero or 100 as resolution approaches.