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Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki: Method of Victory
kalshi

What is the result of Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki?

Volume:
$1,211,029

Tommy McMillen by Decision

 - Kalshi

Tommy McMillen by Decision - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 12, 7:20 PM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tommy McMillen by Decision

View
100%
86%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$121,700
N/A
N/A
$82,789
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO/DQ

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$643,276
N/A
N/A
$576,980
Settled
No
kalshi

Marwan Rahiki by KO/TKO/DQ

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$204,558
N/A
N/A
$178,865
Settled
No
kalshi

Tommy McMillen by Submission

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$119,581
N/A
N/A
$102,103
Settled
No
kalshi

Marwan Rahiki by Decision

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$61,408
N/A
N/A
$51,257
Settled
No
kalshi

Marwan Rahiki by Submission

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,026
N/A
N/A
$42,595
Settled
No
kalshi

Draw/No Contest

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,480
N/A
N/A
$14,360
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether Tommy McMillen will win his UFC Fight Night bout against Marwan Rahiki by Knockout, Technical Knockout, or Disqualification. Currently, Kalshi gives a 39.0% probability to Tommy McMillen winning by KO/TKO/DQ, while a win by Decision is at 32.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the fight as determined by official UFC results, with resolution details found in the resolution source. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for September 12, 2026, as the result will determine whether McMillen secures victory by one of these specific methods before the resolution date of September 13, 2026.

Kalshi

If Tommy McMillen wins by KO/TKO/DQ during the Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki UFC Fight Night fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tommy McMillen wins by Submission during the Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki UFC Fight Night fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tommy McMillen wins by Decision during the Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki UFC Fight Night fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marwan Rahiki wins by KO/TKO/DQ during the Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki UFC Fight Night fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marwan Rahiki wins by Submission during the Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki UFC Fight Night fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marwan Rahiki wins by Decision during the Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki UFC Fight Night fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Tommy McMillen and Marwan Rahiki fight ends in a draw or no contest during the Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki UFC Fight Night fight originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both the prediction market and a sportsbook. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of each contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and its implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders collectively believe is the likelihood of each method of victory in the McMillen vs Rahiki fight, and these prices are constantly updated based on supply and demand.

This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The method of victory – whether by knockout, technical knockout, decision, or submission – will be determined by the official result declared by the relevant boxing commission. The outcome reported will be used to determine which contracts pay out, and at what value, based on the final market prices at the time of resolution. Traders should monitor official sources for confirmation of the fight’s result.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding the fighters’ training camps, such as reports of injuries or changes in strategy, could significantly shift sentiment. Pre-fight press conferences and weigh-ins might also provide clues about their condition and confidence levels. Unexpected announcements about the fight’s location or rules could also impact the market. Finally, any shifts in public opinion, reflected in polls or expert analysis, could drive trading volume and price changes as traders adjust their positions.