TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.1b
24H VOL:
$117,260,785
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,782,936,628
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,740,268,001
506,571
Markets across
37,600
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,852
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Closed: Oct 17, 7:28 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks the total number of 4th down conversions – over or under 0.5 – in the upcoming college football game between Toledo and Eastern Michigan. Currently, the consensus probability favors Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 at 100.0%. This aggregate view combines data from Predict and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official NCAA game results as reported on NCAA.com. Keep an eye on the game itself on October 17th, as the final tally of 4th down conversions will determine the outcome of this market.
In the upcoming college football game between Toledo and Eastern Michigan, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game. This market will resolve to "Eastern Michigan" if Eastern Michigan win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
In the upcoming college football game between Toledo and Eastern Michigan, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game. This market will resolve to "Eastern Michigan" if Eastern Michigan win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect a different kind of information than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets are driven by individuals betting their own capital based on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert opinion. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate forecasters of event outcomes, as they incentivize honest assessment and aggregate diverse perspectives. However, sportsbook odds can be influenced by factors like sharp bettors and liability management.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in user base, market design, and trading volume. Polymarket currently favors Toledo at 100%, while Predict leans toward a different outcome. These differences arise from the unique incentives and information available to each platform’s participants. For example, one platform might attract more sophisticated traders with access to specialized data, while the other may have a broader, more general audience. Furthermore, the specific rules and fees associated with each market can influence trading behavior and price discovery.