TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Yomiuri Giants
kalshi
polymarket

Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Yomiuri Giants

Volume:
$18,975

Over 7.5 runs scored

 - Kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 27, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 8:40 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,704
N/A
N/A
$7,338
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,016
N/A
N/A
$2,713
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Yomiuri Giants

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$524
N/A
N/A
$456
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 11.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$441
N/A
N/A
$441
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers two distinct baseball games involving the Tokyo Yakult Swallows and the Yomiuri Giants. The Polymarket contract resolves based on the outcome of an NPB professional game, while the Kalshi contracts resolve based on run totals from a specified college baseball game scheduled for 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: These markets reference fundamentally different games (professional NPB vs college baseball) with entirely separate resolution mechanicsHero tip: Traders must carefully verify whether they are referring to the professional NPB game or the college game when placing bets. These markets cannot be resolved together and represent entirely different events.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the team that wins the NPB professional game on August 27, remains open if postponed, and resolves 50-50 if canceled or tied. Uses official NPB information as primary source.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if total runs in the Yomiuri Giants vs. Tokyo Yakult Swallows college baseball game on August 26, 2026 exceed 5.5, 7.5, 9.5, or 11.5 runs. No indication of resolution handling for postponements or cancellations in provided description.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 27 at 5:00AM ET: If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to "Tokyo Yakult Swallows". If the Yomiuri Giants win, the market will resolve to "Yomiuri Giants". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the total runs scored by both teams in the specified college baseball game. Multiple markets exist with increasing run thresholds (over 5.5, 7.5, 9.5, and 11.5 runs). Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the combined score exceeds its respective threshold. All markets are independent, and the outcome for each is determined solely by whether the actual total runs meet or exceed that market's specific threshold. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Swallows vs. Giants matchup market aggregates real-time data from multiple prediction venues, showing how traders price the contest across platforms. It displays total volume of $18,975 and 24-hour volume of $18,931, alongside the current consensus view shaped by user bets. This centralized view lets participants monitor shifts in sentiment and compare how the market evolves as the game approaches. By tracking this market, users can see which outcomes are gaining traction and assess potential movements driven by new information or changing odds.

Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to diverse participant motivations and information sources. While sportsbooks set prices based on broader public betting trends and adjusted margins, prediction markets reflect the aggregated beliefs of a niche, analytics-focused user base. This can lead to variations in implied probabilities, especially for nuanced outcomes. Traders on platforms may also react faster to specific data points, such as player injuries or weather forecasts, creating price gaps. Understanding both sets of odds helps identify potential value and anticipate where the market might move next.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can vary because of differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might attract more local fans, skewing its odds toward a particular team, while the other could reflect a more global, analytical crowd. Trading volume also plays a role—lower volume can amplify price swings from large bets. Additionally, each venue may update its odds on different timelines, responding to news or events at varying speeds. These factors combined often create divergence in how the market is priced across platforms.