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Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Yokohama BayStars
kalshi
polymarket

Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Yokohama BayStars

Volume:
$7,054

Tokyo Yakult Swallows wins by over 1.5 runs

 - Kalshi

Tokyo Yakult Swallows wins by over 1.5 runs - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 8:14 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tokyo Yakult Swallows wins by over 1.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,614
N/A
N/A
$1,529
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Yokohama BayStars

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tokyo Yakult Swallows wins by over 2.5 runs

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$745
N/A
N/A
$693
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Yokohama DeNA BayStars wins by over 1.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,186
N/A
N/A
$1,867
Settled
No
kalshi

Yokohama DeNA BayStars wins by over 2.5 runs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,121
N/A
N/A
$1,121
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers the outcome of an NPB baseball game between the Tokyo Yakult Swallows and the Yokohama BayStars scheduled for August 14, 2026. The markets differ in their resolution criteria, with one focusing on the outright winner and the other on run differentials.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The Polymarket resolves on the outright winner while Kalshi resolves on run differential thresholds, creating divergent outcomes for the same game resultHero tip: Traders should verify which market they are trading and ensure they understand the specific resolution criteria for each platform. A Swallows win by 2 runs would resolve differently on each platform

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the team name if they win, 50-50 for ties or cancellations: "If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to 'Tokyo Yakult Swallows'. If the Yokohama BayStars win, this market will resolve to 'Yokohama BayStars'. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if any of four run differential conditions are met: "If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win by more than 2.5 runs... then the market resolves to Yes. If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win by more than 1.5 runs... then the market resolves to Yes. If the Yokohama DeNA BayStars win by more than 1.5 runs... then the market resolves to Yes. If the Yokohama DeNA BayStars win by more than 2.5 runs... then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 14 at 5:00AM ET: If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to "Tokyo Yakult Swallows". If the Yokohama BayStars win, the market will resolve to "Yokohama BayStars". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The event consists of four separate markets, each defining a specific winning margin scenario for either the Yokohama DeNA BayStars or the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in their scheduled game on August 14, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the indicated team wins by the exact run differential specified (either over 1.5 or over 2.5 runs). If none of these conditions are met — meaning the game ends in a tie, one team wins by exactly 1 or 2 runs, or the other team wins by any margin — all markets resolve to 'No'. The markets are independent, and the outcome of one does not affect the others. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.