TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,176,691

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,391,958,194

394,660

Markets across

30,119

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Hiroshima Carp
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Hiroshima Carp?

Volume:
$307,444

Tokyo Yakult Swallows

 - Kalshi

Tokyo Yakult Swallows - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 24, 2026

Closed: Jul 24, 9:39 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tokyo Yakult Swallows

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$160,552
N/A
N/A
$78,377
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Hiroshima Carp

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hiroshima Toyo Carp

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$134,106
N/A
N/A
$62,379
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a single NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) game between the Tokyo Yakult Swallows and Hiroshima Carp scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the outcome of this game, with resolution tied to official NPB results.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: both possible outcomes (Hiroshima win and Yakult win) are defined to resolve to Yes, leaving no valid No resolution path. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable as specified.Hero tip: Avoid trading the Kalshi market until the platform clarifies the resolution logic. The market as written cannot function—either a No condition is missing, or the Yes conditions are incorrectly duplicated. Polymarket's binary structure (Swallows vs Carp, with 50-50 for tie/cancel) is logically sound and should be your primary reference.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Clean binary outcome market: resolves to 'Tokyo Yakult Swallows' if Swallows win, 'Hiroshima Carp' if Carp win, and 50-50 split if game is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or ends in a tie. Resolution source is official NPB or credible consensus reporting.
  • Kalshi: Defective market structure: states 'If Hiroshima Toyo Carp wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tokyo Yakult Swallows wins...resolves to Yes'. No No-resolution condition is defined, creating a logical impossibility where both outcomes map to the same result.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for July 24 at 5:00AM ET: If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to "Tokyo Yakult Swallows". If the Hiroshima Carp win, the market will resolve to "Hiroshima Carp". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

This event covers a Japan NPB game originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT between the Hiroshima Toyo Carp and Tokyo Yakult Swallows. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled beyond two days, the market resolves to a fair price per the rules. In the event of a tie, all related markets resolve to 50/50.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market prices for the Swallows vs. Carp matchup across Polymarket and Kalshi, letting you monitor real-time odds on the game outcome. Traders on both venues are pricing their views of which team will win, and you can compare how each platform's community is leaning. The combined volume across these markets reflects active interest in this matchup, giving you a snapshot of consensus sentiment alongside individual platform perspectives. Track price movements leading up to the event to spot shifting expectations.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they serve different audiences. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, often incorporating a margin. Prediction markets, by contrast, are peer-to-peer exchanges where traders themselves set prices based on their beliefs about the outcome. This market's odds reflect what thousands of independent traders think will happen, unfiltered by a bookmaker's profit motive. Many traders monitor both to identify discrepancies and arbitrage opportunities, making prediction markets a useful cross-check against traditional sports betting lines.

Key injury announcements, roster changes, or recent team performance trends can shift odds significantly. Weather conditions on game day, home-field advantage factors, and head-to-head historical matchups also influence trader sentiment. Breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions often triggers sharp price moves in the hours before game time. Monitor sports news outlets and official team communications for updates that might change the calculus. Late-breaking information—especially confirmation or denial of player participation—tends to create the most dramatic repricing in these markets.