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399,592

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Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons?

Volume:
$18,404

Over 9.5 runs scored

 - Kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 22, 2026

Closed: Jul 22, 8:24 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,006
N/A
N/A
$8,774
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,296
N/A
N/A
$2,848
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 11.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,297
N/A
N/A
$905
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$974
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$831
N/A
N/A
$774
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers a single NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) matchup between the Tokyo Yakult Swallows and Chunichi Dragons scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. Polymarket offers a binary win/loss market, while Kalshi offers multiple over/under markets on combined team scoring.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi reference fundamentally different market types (match outcome vs. aggregate scoring), and Kalshi contains a critical data integrity failure: it labels an NPB professional game as "College Baseball" and dates it 2026, suggesting either wrong-event mapping or corrupted metadata.Hero tip: Treat these as separate, non-comparable markets. Polymarket resolves on winner only; Kalshi resolves on combined run totals. The Kalshi metadata error (College Baseball, 2026 date) is a red flag—verify the actual game reference before trading. If Kalshi is indeed tracking a different game or year, the markets are incomparable.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary outcome market: resolves to winner name (Swallows or Dragons) or 50-50 on tie/cancellation. Source: Official NPB. Quote: 'If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to Tokyo Yakult Swallows.'
  • Kalshi: Four separate over/under run-total markets (5.5, 7.5, 9.5, 11.5 combined runs). Each resolves Yes if threshold met. CRITICAL ERROR: Labeled 'College Baseball' (NPB is professional) and dated 2026 (Polymarket references current schedule). Quote: 'If Chunichi Dragons and Tokyo Yakult Swallows collectively score more than 5.5 runs...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for July 22 at 5:00AM ET: If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to "Tokyo Yakult Swallows". If the Chunichi Dragons win, the market will resolve to "Chunichi Dragons". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the total runs scored by both teams in the Chunichi Dragons vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows game on July 22, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. Resolution occurs at four distinct run thresholds: 5.5 runs, 7.5 runs, 9.5 runs, and 11.5 runs. Each threshold represents a separate market outcome, with resolution to Yes if the combined team score exceeds the specified threshold. The official game result as recorded by the governing league determines the final run total used for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market data on the Swallows vs. Dragons matchup across Polymarket and Kalshi, letting you monitor real-time odds and trading volume as the event approaches. Traders on both venues are pricing the likely outcome of this matchup, with each platform's community independently assessing the probabilities. You can compare how consensus shifts across venues and track which outcome is gaining or losing support. The cross-platform view helps you spot divergences in pricing and understand where the broader prediction market community stands on this game.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks use different mechanisms to set odds. Sportsbooks employ oddsmakers and adjust lines to balance action, while prediction markets rely on traders buying and selling shares to reveal consensus probability. Prediction market prices often reflect crowd wisdom and can move faster than traditional sportsbook lines when new information emerges. However, sportsbook odds may incorporate sharper professional analysis and real-time betting patterns. Comparing the two can reveal valuable insights: if prediction markets and sportsbooks diverge significantly, it may signal an opportunity or highlight uncertainty the crowd and professionals view differently.