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406,065

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Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons?

Volume:
$20,231

Over 5.5 runs scored

 - Kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 20, 2026

Closed: Jul 20, 8:04 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,634
N/A
N/A
$1,355
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,425
N/A
N/A
$11,079
Settled
No
polymarket

Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Chunichi Dragons

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,833
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$709
N/A
N/A
$694
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 11.5 runs scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$630
N/A
N/A
$613
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers a single NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) matchup between the Tokyo Yakult Swallows and Chunichi Dragons scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. Polymarket offers a binary win/loss market, while Kalshi offers four separate over/under markets on combined team scoring (5.5, 7.5, 9.5, and 11.5 runs).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi measure different settlement values for the same game: Polymarket resolves on match winner/outcome, while Kalshi resolves on aggregate run totals. This is a scope and market-type divergence, not a logical contradiction.Hero tip: Treat these as separate trading opportunities. Polymarket is a pure moneyline play; Kalshi is a totals play. A team can win 1-0 (Swallows win on Polymarket, No on all Kalshi thresholds) or lose 10-0 (Dragons win on Polymarket, Yes on all Kalshi thresholds). Monitor both independently and use game context (team form, pitcher matchups, weather) to inform each separately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary match outcome market. Resolves to winning team name or 50-50 if canceled/tied/no makeup. Source: Official NPB or credible reporting. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Four separate over/under aggregate run-total markets (5.5, 7.5, 9.5, 11.5 runs combined). Each resolves Yes if combined score exceeds threshold. Source: Final game score. Key quote: 'If Chunichi Dragons and Tokyo Yakult Swallows collectively score more than [X] runs... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for July 20 at 5:00AM ET: If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to "Tokyo Yakult Swallows". If the Chunichi Dragons win, the market will resolve to "Chunichi Dragons". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the total combined runs scored by both teams in the Chunichi Dragons vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows game scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. Four separate markets assess whether this combined total exceeds 5.5, 7.5, 9.5, or 11.5 runs respectively. Each threshold represents a distinct outcome, with higher thresholds indicating higher-scoring games. The game outcome is measured at the conclusion of regulation play.

Frequently asked questions

The Swallows vs. Dragons matchup dashboard aggregates prediction market activity across Polymarket and Kalshi, letting you monitor real-time odds on the outcome of this NPB contest. Traders on both venues price their views of who will win, and the dashboard surfaces the consensus view alongside individual platform prices. You can track volume trends, historical price movements, and comparative odds across venues to spot opportunities or validate your own forecast before the game concludes.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks use different mechanisms to set odds. Sportsbooks employ oddsmakers and risk management to balance their books, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus—buy and sell pressure from participants with real money at stake. This market reflects what traders collectively believe will happen, often incorporating faster-moving information than traditional sportsbooks. Comparing the two can reveal where public opinion diverges from professional bookmaking, though both ultimately aim to price the true likelihood of the outcome.

Key catalysts include injury announcements affecting either team's roster, recent performance trends, head-to-head historical matchups, and lineup changes. Weather conditions on game day can also shift trader sentiment, as can any last-minute roster adjustments or managerial decisions. Trading volume and sentiment shifts on Polymarket and Kalshi themselves often signal new information entering the market. Monitor sports news and team announcements closely; even minor updates can trigger repricing as traders update their forecasts.