TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 5, 7:35 AM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between two professional teams. Each market corresponds to a specific run differential threshold that determines the outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the game as it reflects how decisively one team defeats the other.
These markets resolve based on the run differential by which either the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles or the Orix Buffaloes win the Japan NPB game scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 5:00 AM EDT. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team exceeds the specified run margin: Orix Buffaloes winning by more than 2.5 runs, Orix Buffaloes winning by more than 1.5 runs, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles winning by more than 1.5 runs, or Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles winning by more than 2.5 runs. If none of these conditions are met—meaning the game ends in a tie, one team wins by exactly the threshold run margin, or the other team wins with a smaller margin—the markets resolve to 'No'. All markets are independent assessments of different victory margins and operate under the same underlying game context without affiliation to the governing league.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to trader positioning and liquidity dynamics. While sportsbooks may set a fixed spread based on analytic models, prediction markets let participants bet directly on outcomes, sometimes producing sharper or more volatile prices depending on recent performance and public sentiment.
This market resolves around Aug 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official game statistics, specifically the final score difference between the two teams, and will match the parameters set in this market at launch.
In the coming weeks, several factors may shift probabilities in this market. Key performances from star players, pitching rotations, and any late-season injuries can all influence trader sentiment. Weather conditions or playoff implications as Aug 5, 2026 approaches might also cause rapid adjustments. Follow league updates closely, as momentum swings or coaching decisions often drive sharp movements in betting and prediction markets alike.