TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 23, 9:54 AM EST
Kalshi
Two Japanese baseball teams compete in a match where outcomes depend on the margin of victory. Bettors predict whether a team will win by a specific number of runs or more, adding a layered approach to standard game outcome predictions.
These markets resolve based on the run differential between the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles and the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in their game scheduled for September 23, 2026. Four separate outcomes are considered: Hokkaido Nippon-Ham winning by over 2.5 runs, Hokkaido Nippon-Ham winning by over 1.5 runs, Tohoku Rakuten winning by over 1.5 runs, and Tohoku Rakuten winning by over 2.5 runs. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team achieves the stated run differential in the game as scheduled. If any game is cancelled, forfeited, or otherwise incomplete such that a definitive run differential cannot be established, all markets resolve as 'No.' Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the Japan NPB or ownership of associated trademarks.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a broader range of information and participant perspectives than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective wisdom of many traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on factors like player injuries, weather conditions, or even intangible team momentum. If there's a significant difference between the odds offered here and at a sportsbook, it could indicate an opportunity for arbitrage, where traders can profit by betting on both sides.
This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles versus Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on whether the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win by more than 2.5 runs. The official game results will be used to determine the winning contract. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or starting pitcher changes for either the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles or the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters would likely cause price movement. Weather forecasts, particularly if they predict rain or strong winds, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected lineup announcements or changes in team strategy could also shift the market. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could lead to changes in the perceived probability of a Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles victory.