TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 15, 3:45 AM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming baseball game between two professional teams. It focuses on whether either team will secure a decisive lead, defined by specific run differences, highlighting the competitive balance expected in the matchup.
The event evaluates various run-difference thresholds for determining a market resolution in a baseball game scheduled for August 15, 2026. Four distinct primary rules define specific victory margins: the Fukuoka Hawks winning by over 2.5 runs, the Hawks winning by over 1.5 runs, the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles winning by over 1.5 runs, and the Eagles winning by over 2.5 runs. Each rule corresponds to a separate market outcome, all contingent on the same game occurring as originally scheduled. The secondary rules clarify that the platform hosting these markets—Kalshi—is not officially affiliated with the Japan NPB league, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners. Resolution depends solely on the actual game result, measured against these run-difference criteria.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a different outlook than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks set their spreads based on sharp handicappers and public action, prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced beliefs, which can skew toward underdog support or contrarian bets. Traders may see tighter or wider implied margins depending on recent performance, injuries, or weather conditions.
This market resolves around Aug 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score will be compared against the spread line to determine which side wins, and the market will close accordingly shortly after the game ends.