TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Titled Tuesday Top 5: Sep 22
kalshi

Titled Tuesday Top 5: Sep 22

Volume:
$5,130

Hikaru Nakamura

 - Kalshi

Hikaru Nakamura - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 9:13 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hikaru Nakamura

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$727
N/A
N/A
$614
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Vincent Keymer

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$438
N/A
N/A
$438
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Denis Lazavik

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$134
N/A
N/A
$134
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Alireza Firouzja

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
$113
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Ian Nepomniachtchi

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$81
N/A
N/A
$81
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$600
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnus Carlsen

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$439
N/A
N/A
$435
Settled
No
kalshi

Aleksei Sarana

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
No
kalshi

Hans Niemann

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$270
N/A
N/A
$268
Settled
No
kalshi

Parham Maghsoodloo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$247
N/A
N/A
$247
Settled
No
kalshi

Liem Le

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$206
N/A
N/A
$206
Settled
No
kalshi

Sina Movahed

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$203
N/A
N/A
$203
Settled
No
kalshi

Arjun Erigaisi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Le Tuan Minh

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Jose Martinez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Awonder Liang

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Tobias Koelle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Fabiano Caruana

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
No
kalshi

Andrey Esipenko

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Dmitry Andreikin

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sam Sevian

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Renato Terry Lujan

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bogdan-Daniel Deac

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Oleksandr Bortnyk

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 71

Description

This market assesses the performance of various chess players in a weekly competition, determining if they secure a position among the highest scorers in a single event. The outcome hinges solely on each individual's final standing relative to others in that specific tournament.

Kalshi

Each market evaluates whether a specified chess player finishes within the top five positions in the Titled Tuesday weekly chess competition scheduled for September 22, 2026. The event follows a blitz format and consists of 11 rounds in a Swiss tournament structure. If the named player achieves a top-five finish, the respective market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. If the player does not participate in the event, the market automatically resolves to 'No'. The markets are independent of each other, with each focusing exclusively on the performance of a single player. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often differ from sportsbook odds because they reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, rather than the assessment of a few professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may be influenced by factors like public betting patterns or a desire to balance their risk, while this market is driven purely by individuals’ beliefs about the likely outcome. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated accuracy in forecasting event outcomes, sometimes exceeding the performance of traditional polls or analysts. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially in events where information is readily available and many informed traders participate.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their predictions. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular player to finish in the top five, the price of those contracts increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the available liquidity at different price points, giving traders insight into the potential cost of entering or exiting a position. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.

This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final standings of the Titled Tuesday competition are verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results published by the tournament organizers, determining which players ultimately achieve a top-five finish. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the top five finishers, based on the prices at which their contracts were purchased. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand when the market will be settled.

Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Unexpected results in preliminary rounds of the Titled Tuesday tournament, or news regarding a player’s health or form, could all shift expectations and impact the odds. Significant commentary from chess analysts or prominent figures in the chess community could also sway trader sentiment. Changes in the perceived strength of competitors, or even unexpected pairings in later stages of the tournament, could lead to adjustments in the market prices. Any information that alters the perceived probability of a player finishing in the top five has the potential to move this market.