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$290,393,159
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2,984,640,614
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$1,944,100,805
420,493
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Time left: 04d:13h:11m
Will "Thriller" rank No. 16–20 on Billboard Hot 100?
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Description
This event tracks the performance of Michael Jackson's 'Thriller' on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending November 7, 2026. It evaluates whether the song achieves various ranking positions, reflecting its popularity and chart success during that specific period.
Kalshi
The event determines if Michael Jackson's 'Thriller' appears within specific ranking ranges on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated November 7, 2026. Multiple markets cover sequential rank bands from 1-2 up through 75-100. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the song’s final chart position falls anywhere within the defined range for that particular market. All markets share identical secondary disclaimers stating Kalshi’s lack of affiliation with Billboard and acknowledging trademark ownership. The structure allows participants to speculate on the song’s chart performance across varying levels of success or obscurity for that week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for this event. However, generally, prediction markets can offer a different perspective than traditional polls or expert opinions. Analysts might focus on historical trends, radio play, or streaming numbers, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Discrepancies between the two can arise due to differing methodologies and information access, offering a valuable comparative insight into potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different ranking ranges for “Thriller” on the Billboard Hot 100. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the song’s potential chart performance.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Billboard Hot 100 chart ranking for “Thriller” is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final ranking as published by Billboard will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Traders who correctly predicted the ranking range will receive a payout, while those who bet on incorrect ranges will not. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome based on the official Billboard chart.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. A surge in streaming numbers or radio play for “Thriller” in the months leading up to November 7, 2026, would likely increase the probability of a higher ranking. Conversely, the release of competing songs from major artists could decrease its chances. Major media coverage, viral trends on social media, or even unexpected events impacting music consumption habits could also shift the market. Any news related to the song's promotion or public reception will be closely watched by traders.
