TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 350K
- Kalshi
Above 350K - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 16, 2026
Closed: Aug 16, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the first-week album equivalent units (AEU) performance of Stray Kids' album THIS & THAT during the tracking week of August 7-13, 2026 in the United States. Album equivalent units combine physical sales, digital sales, and streaming activity into a single metric that represents total consumption. Resolution occurs on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week based on data provided by Luminate Data, LLC.
Kalshi
This event establishes a tiered series of thresholds for album equivalent units of THIS & THAT by Stray Kids during the August 7-13, 2026 tracking week in the U.S. market. Each threshold—ranging from above 50,000 units to above 500,000 units in increments of 25,000—represents a separate resolution criterion. Album equivalent units represent a comprehensive measure of consumption that combines physical album sales, digital album sales, and streaming activity into a unified metric. Data is sourced from Luminate Data, LLC, a neutral provider of market metrics. Resolution occurs on the Sunday immediately following the conclusion of the tracking week. Each threshold tier operates independently, enabling detailed assessment of the album's total commercial performance and audience engagement across multiple consumption channels.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from diverse traders rather than relying on a single research methodology. While music industry analysts may publish pre-release projections based on streaming data, radio play, and historical comps, this market prices in live trader conviction and updated information. The two sources can align or conflict depending on whether the market has access to breaking news—such as chart performance updates or streaming momentum shifts—that analysts may not yet have incorporated into their models.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different outcome ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective willingness of buyers and sellers to transact at that level, with tighter spreads indicating higher confidence and wider spreads suggesting uncertainty. As new information about the album's performance emerges—such as pre-order numbers or early streaming data—traders adjust their positions, moving prices in real time to reflect updated expectations.
This market resolves around Aug 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the album's first-week equivalent-unit total is verifiable from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on official chart data and industry-standard reporting that documents the album's opening-week performance. Once that figure is published and cross-verified, the market will settle according to which outcome range the actual number falls into, determining which traders' positions are correct.
Several catalysts could shift this market significantly before resolution. Pre-order numbers and early streaming metrics often provide the first real signal of demand, while radio airplay and playlist placements on major platforms can accelerate momentum. Chart predictions from industry publications, social media buzz, and any surprise collaborations or promotional announcements may also influence trader positioning. Additionally, broader music industry trends—such as shifts in how equivalent units are calculated or competing album releases—could reshape expectations for this particular release's opening-week performance.
