TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 90
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 21, 2026
Closed: Sep 21, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This group of markets asks whether the film "The Weight" will achieve a certain score on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer, a percentage representing the proportion of positive reviews from critics. Markets exist for various score thresholds, all resolving based on the Tomatometer score at a specific date and time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets resolve if the score is *above* a threshold, while Polymarket markets resolve if the score is *at least* a threshold. This creates a divergence in the resolution criteria.Hero tip: Consider the impact of rounding and the potential for a score to fall exactly on the threshold. Kalshi markets will not resolve 'Yes' on the threshold, while Polymarket markets will.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Markets ask if the Tomatometer score will be 'at least' a specified value (e.g., 85). Resolves 'Yes' if the score is 85 or higher. Question: Will "The Weight" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
- Kalshi: Markets resolve 'Yes' if the Tomatometer score is 'above' a specified value (e.g., 85). Resolves 'Yes' if the score is 86 or higher. If The Weight has a Tomatometer score of above 85 on Sep 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for The Weight is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on September 21, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kalshi
All markets for The Weight evaluate whether the film's Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score exceeds specified thresholds by September 21, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Each market has a unique numerical threshold (ranging from above 45 to above 90), and resolves to 'Yes' only if the score strictly surpasses that exact value. For instance, a score of 75 would not satisfy markets requiring above 75 or higher. All markets are determined on the Monday following the film's wide release, and none are endorsed by Rotten Tomatoes, which is cited purely for descriptive purposes. The 'Fresh!' and 'Certified Fresh!' labels serve only as illustrative examples and do not affect resolution logic.