TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 381M
- Kalshi
Above 381M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved May 30, 2026
Closed: May 30, 4:51 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks whether The Weeknd will accumulate 390 million or more worldwide streams during the May 22–28, 2026 tracking week on Luminate. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 51.5%. Resolution will be determined by official Luminate data showing whether The Weeknd achieves above 388 million worldwide streams during that specific week. Watch The Weeknd's release schedule and promotional activity leading into late May 2026, as any new album drops or major campaign announcements during that period could significantly influence streaming volume for the tracking week.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader conviction about The Weeknd's streaming output during the May 22–28 window. Unlike traditional analyst forecasts, which rely on historical trends and subjective judgment, market odds aggregate live information and trader positioning. Comparing market probability to independent streaming analysts' expectations can reveal whether traders are pricing in optimism or caution relative to expert baseline projections for The Weeknd's weekly performance on Luminate.
On Kalshi, The Weeknd: Weekly Streams is priced as a binary contract: traders buy or sell shares reflecting the probability that The Weeknd will record 388,000,000 streams on Luminate during May 22–28, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contract price moves between 0 and 100 cents based on order flow and market demand. Higher prices indicate stronger trader belief in the outcome; lower prices suggest skepticism. Traders profit by correctly predicting whether actual streams will meet, exceed, or fall short of the 388,000,000 threshold.
The market resolves on Jun 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by The Weeknd's actual Luminate stream count for the May 22–28, 2026 tracking week. The outcome is binary: if streams reach or exceed 388,000,000, the contract settles one way; if they fall below that level, it settles the other. Official Luminate data serves as the authoritative source for final stream tallies, ensuring transparent and objective settlement.
Several factors could shift market odds before Jun 1, 2026. New music releases, surprise performances, or viral moments during the May 22–28 window could drive streaming surges. Playlist placements on major platforms, radio rotation, and social media momentum all influence weekly stream velocity. Chart performance, touring announcements, or collaborations may also attract casual listeners. Additionally, real-time streaming data leaks or industry reports released mid-week could prompt traders to adjust positions based on emerging performance signals.
