TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 16M
- Kalshi
Above 16M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 17, 9:20 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks The Weeknd's performance on YouTube over a specific week, focusing on whether his daily view counts surpass various thresholds. It uses a standardized method to verify view counts from a consistent geographic location, ensuring fairness and transparency in the outcome determination.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds of global daily YouTube views for The Weeknd during the week of September 14-20, 2026. For each threshold—from 12 million to 25 million views—the market resolves to 'Yes' if The Weeknd's view count exceeds that specific level at any point during the specified period. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address to maintain consistency, accessing data through YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location. It is explicitly stated that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, with no affiliation implied. The structure allows participants to speculate on the magnitude of The Weeknd's popularity, with higher thresholds representing more ambitious performance benchmarks.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to analyst forecasts for this specific event, as comprehensive public predictions regarding The Weeknd’s daily view counts during that period are limited. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This market reflects the collective judgment of traders, potentially capturing nuances that a single analyst might miss. It will be interesting to see if the outcome aligns more closely with the wisdom of the crowd expressed in this market or with expert predictions as they become available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts at prices determined by supply and demand. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices will fluctuate, reflecting the evolving expectations surrounding The Weeknd’s potential viewership. The current price indicates the market’s assessment of the likelihood of exceeding 14 million daily views during the specified timeframe.
This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count The Weeknd achieves across all major streaming platforms and video-sharing sites between September 14, 2026, and September 20, 2026. The specific data sources used to verify the view counts will be determined by Kalshi and will be publicly available upon resolution. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price movement in this market. Major announcements regarding The Weeknd’s new releases, tour dates, or promotional activities would likely have a significant impact. Unexpected events affecting streaming platform usage or general entertainment consumption could also play a role. Furthermore, shifts in public sentiment towards The Weeknd, as reflected in social media trends or music charts, could influence trader behavior. Any news related to competing artists or major entertainment events during that week could also move this market.
