TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 47,480,823
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 47,480,823 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Closed: Jul 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market tracks whether 'The Tortured Poets Department' achieves streaming performance above a specific threshold during the July 10-16 tracking week. Streaming data is compiled from global sources and typically published within 48 hours after the week concludes.
Kalshi
If The Tortured Poets Department has above 47,480,823 Worldwide Streams during the July 10 - July 16, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives—traders who bet incorrectly lose money, creating pressure for accuracy. While entertainment analysts may rely on industry reports, release schedules, and studio statements, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants betting with their own capital. Comparing the two can reveal where expert consensus and market-based forecasting align or diverge, offering a complementary perspective on the likelihood of the streaming event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the market's aggregate belief about the probability of the event, with higher prices indicating stronger confidence. As new information surfaces or trading volume shifts, prices adjust in real time, allowing you to enter or exit positions at the prevailing market rate.
This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, at which point the outcome will be confirmed against credible public reporting and verified sources. The resolution hinges on whether the streaming event occurs within the specified timeframe. Once the outcome is determined and verified, all positions settle accordingly, with winning traders receiving payouts based on their share holdings.
Several catalysts could shift odds in this market. Official announcements from the artist, streaming platform, or label about release timing would have immediate impact. Media reports, social media activity, or industry leaks hinting at imminent availability could drive bullish trading. Conversely, delays, postponements, or statements pushing the release beyond the resolution window would likely move prices downward. Trading volume spikes often accompany these announcements, so monitoring news and community discussion can help you anticipate market moves.
