TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 7:26 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day second weekend (October 16 - 18) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day second weekend (October 16 - 18) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a high probability that the Social Reckoning’s second weekend box office will fall within a specific range. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often rely on pre-release buzz and historical data. While analysts may offer point estimates or broader projections, this market allows for a more nuanced view, with traders betting on probabilities across different potential outcome ranges. Discrepancies between the market and analyst predictions can highlight differing expectations or access to unique information.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price discovery process is driven by individuals responding to new information and adjusting their positions accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the Social Reckoning's potential box office performance.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final second weekend box office gross for The Social Reckoning will be used to determine which outcome range is correct. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from established box office reporting services, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Positive or negative critical reviews, significant social media trends surrounding the film, and unexpected competitor releases could all shift trader sentiment. Early box office numbers from the opening weekend will be a major catalyst, as will any news regarding distribution or marketing efforts. Furthermore, unexpected events impacting moviegoing habits, such as weather patterns or major news events, could also move this market as traders reassess the likely second weekend performance of the Social Reckoning.
