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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Closed: Sep 1, 6:31 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "The Odyssey" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 17, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "The Odyssey" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 17, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets aggregate the collective judgment of thousands of traders with real money at stake, often producing forecasts that differ from traditional analyst estimates. While film industry analysts may rely on historical comps, production budgets, and marketing spend, this market reflects live consensus from participants constantly updating their views based on new information. Comparing the odds here to published box office projections from studios or trade publications can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk that conventional forecasters may have missed.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The odds move continuously as traders buy and sell shares, with each transaction updating the implied likelihood that the film will hit the specified domestic gross target. Higher trading volume typically narrows the spread between buy and sell prices, making it easier to enter or exit a position at a fair price.
This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, once the film's final domestic box office total becomes verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual cumulative domestic gross—tracked by industry sources and box office databases—against the threshold specified in the market. Traders who correctly predicted whether the film would reach or fall short of that target receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Major catalysts include the film's official release date announcement, trailer reception and social media buzz, early critic reviews, opening weekend box office performance, and any significant cast or production news. Broader entertainment trends—such as competing releases, seasonal moviegoing patterns, and streaming platform strategies—can also shift trader expectations. Real-time box office reporting throughout the summer will provide concrete data that either validates or challenges the current market odds, potentially triggering sharp repricing as the August 31 deadline approaches.
