TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 9K
- Kalshi
Above 9K - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Closed: Jun 28, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the first-week performance of YG's album "THE GENTLEMEN'S CLUB" during its release week in June 2026, measured by Album Equivalent Units (AEU) as reported by music industry tracking services. The market creates multiple outcome tiers based on different sales thresholds to gauge the commercial success of the album's debut.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes if YG's album 'THE GENTLEMEN'S CLUB' achieves Album Equivalent Units above the specified threshold during the June 19, 2026 - June 25, 2026 tracking week in the United States. Album Equivalent Units are calculated by Luminate Data, LLC, a neutral provider of market metrics. The market will resolve on the Sunday immediately following the tracking week based on official Luminate data.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations, which often diverge from traditional analyst estimates and industry forecasts. While music industry analysts may rely on historical chart data, radio airplay, and streaming pre-orders, prediction markets incorporate live sentiment and trader conviction. Comparing the market's implied probability to published analyst predictions can reveal where consensus differs or where traders see overlooked opportunities. This comparison helps identify whether the market is pricing in factors analysts have underweighted or overweighted.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, THE GENTLEMEN'S CLUB's first-week album equivalent units are priced through binary or range-based contracts that traders buy and sell based on their forecast of the album's opening-week performance. Prices move as new information emerges—including pre-release buzz, streaming metrics, and industry commentary—and reflect the collective belief of active traders. The market price at any moment represents the marginal trader's view, and order-book depth shows how much conviction exists at each price level.
The market resolves on Jun 28, 2026. Resolution is determined by official first-week album equivalent unit data for THE GENTLEMEN'S CLUB, which establishes the final outcome against which all contracts settle. The specific measurement period and data source are defined in the market's terms, ensuring a clear, verifiable result. Traders should review the full market rules to understand exactly which metrics and time window define the resolution criteria.
Key catalysts include official streaming and sales data releases, radio airplay announcements, music critic reviews, and any major promotional or touring news. Chart-tracking updates from industry sources can shift trader expectations as release week approaches. Social media momentum, playlist placements on major platforms, and unexpected collaborations or features may also influence market prices. Additionally, broader music industry trends or competing album releases could reshape how traders assess THE GENTLEMEN'S CLUB's opening-week performance relative to other releases.
