TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 1:49 PM EST
Kalshi
The Amundi Evian Championship is a major professional women's golf tournament held in France. This market tracks who holds the lead after the second round of competition. If multiple golfers are tied for the best score, payouts are split equally among them.
The market resolves based on which participant holds the lead at the end of Round 2 of the 2026 The Amundi Evian Championship. Each rule identifies a specific golfer; if that golfer is the sole leader or tied for the lead, their corresponding market resolves to Yes. When multiple participants tie for the lead, Yes payouts are divided equally among the tied participants' markets, with each receiving $1/N rounded down to the nearest cent, while No positions receive the remainder.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they serve different audiences and operate under different constraints. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets like this one are driven by supply and demand from traders seeking to profit on their forecasts. Prediction markets frequently reflect sharper, real-time consensus on tournament outcomes because traders can enter and exit positions continuously. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbook lines can reveal whether the crowd is pricing the Round 2 leader differently than professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects a fractional claim on the probability of a specific golfer leading after Round 2, with prices ranging from near-zero to near-100 cents. The bid-ask spread tightens as more traders participate, and prices adjust continuously as new information emerges—such as live scoring, weather changes, or course conditions during the tournament.
This market resolves around Jul 26, 2026, once the second round of the Amundi Evian Championship concludes and final leaderboard standings are confirmed. The outcome is determined by verifying which golfer holds the lead at the end of Round 2 against credible public sources covering the tournament. Traders holding shares in the correct leader receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.
Live scoring updates during Round 2 will drive the most immediate price swings, as traders react to each golfer's performance hole-by-hole. Weather conditions, course setup changes, and injury or withdrawal announcements can shift odds significantly. Momentum from Round 1 standings may anchor initial expectations, but a strong or weak performance by favorites or underdogs will reshape probabilities. Media commentary and expert analysis published before and during Round 2 can also influence trader sentiment and reposition the market.