TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Target Streams: 45,518,225
- Kalshi
Target Streams: 45,518,225 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 4, 2026
Closed: Jul 4, 2:32 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
thank u, next is an album or music project whose streaming performance will be tracked during the June 26 - July 02 week. The prediction concerns whether it will accumulate more than 45,518,225 worldwide streams during this specific tracking period.
Kalshi
If thank u, next has above 45,518,225 Worldwide Streams during the June 26 - July 02, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and crowdsourced information rather than single expert opinions. Traders in this market are financially motivated to price in all available signals—social media hints, scheduling patterns, and industry rumors—that analysts may weight differently or overlook. When this market's odds move sharply, it frequently signals that traders have incorporated new information faster than conventional forecasters, making the comparison useful for identifying emerging consensus.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous order-book matching, where buyers and sellers set bids and asks based on their conviction about the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price you see represents the marginal trade—the last executed transaction—and reflects the collective belief of all active traders at that moment. As new information surfaces or sentiment shifts, the spread between buy and sell orders widens or tightens, and prices adjust accordingly to clear the market.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether new streams matching the specified criteria actually air during the relevant window. Traders should monitor official announcements and verified entertainment news sources leading up to the deadline to assess the likelihood of resolution in either direction.
Official social media announcements or press releases about streaming plans would be the most direct catalyst for sharp price movement in this market. Industry reports, leaked schedules, or statements from streaming platforms could also shift odds significantly. Additionally, any public comments from related parties or changes to announced entertainment calendars may trigger trader repositioning. The closer you get to the resolution date, the more any credible scheduling confirmation or denial will compress uncertainty and drive final price discovery.
