TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 26, 10:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks individual team run production for both Texas and Toronto in their June 26, 2026 game. Bettors can wager on whether each team will score above specific run thresholds, with Toronto thresholds ranging from 1.5 to 7.5 runs and Texas thresholds ranging from 1.5 to 7.5 runs.
Resolution is based on the individual run totals scored by Texas and Toronto in the game originally scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 7:07 PM EDT. Toronto outcomes resolve to Yes if Toronto scores at least one run more than the specified threshold (e.g., 2+ runs for the 1.5 threshold, 3+ runs for the 2.5 threshold, continuing through 8+ runs for the 7.5 threshold). Texas outcomes resolve to Yes if Texas scores at least one run more than the specified threshold using the same progression. Each team's performance is evaluated independently based on their final run total in the game.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets aggregate beliefs from traders risking real capital on outcomes. This market may show different implied probabilities than traditional sportsbooks, especially as new information emerges or as the event date approaches. Comparing the two can reveal where traders and bookmakers disagree on the likely team total, offering insight into market consensus versus professional oddsmaking.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the balance of supply and demand; as more traders buy or sell, the odds shift in real time. Your position's value updates continuously based on the current bid-ask spread and trading volume. This transparent, peer-to-peer pricing model means the market price converges toward the true probability as traders with better information enter positions.
This market resolves around Jun 27, 2026, once the Texas vs Toronto game concludes and the final team totals are verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the combined points scored by each team during regulation play. Once the result is confirmed and published by official sports reporting, the market will settle and payouts will be distributed to holders of the winning outcome. Resolution typically occurs within hours of game completion.
Key injury announcements, roster changes, or lineup confirmations for either team can shift trader expectations and move prices significantly. Weather conditions, venue factors, and recent team performance trends also influence how traders price the team total. Breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions may trigger rapid repricing as new information becomes public. Additionally, shifts in betting patterns at traditional sportsbooks or changes in team strategy leading up to game day can prompt traders to adjust their positions, creating volatility in this market.