TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 3:55 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the margin of victory for either Texas or Tennessee specifically in the fourth quarter of their college football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
The markets resolve based on the point differential by which either Texas or Tennessee wins the fourth quarter of the game, excluding overtime. Each market has a specific threshold: Texas must win by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, while Tennessee must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points for the respective markets to resolve to Yes. Only points scored during the fourth quarter count toward these thresholds. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original scheduled time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, the markets resolve to a fair price. All markets are independent, and only the specified point differential thresholds apply to each respective market.
Generally, prediction markets and sportsbooks often arrive at similar probabilities, but they do so through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on their internal models and aim to balance their risk, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply variations in how each assesses the probability of a particular result. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public perception shifts.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the fourth quarter of the Texas vs Tennessee game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders who correctly predicted the final spread will receive a payout based on the contract price at the time of their trade.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Texas or Tennessee teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions that favor one team's playing style, could also impact trading activity. Finally, any shifts in public sentiment, perhaps driven by expert analysis or social media discussions, could influence traders' decisions and move the market price. The market will react to any new information that alters perceptions of the likely outcome.