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Democrats, 1+ pts
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Democrats, 1+ pts - Kalshi
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Resolves Nov 3, 2027
Latest in Elections
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?
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Description
The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas will determine whether the opposing party wins with a narrow to moderate margin of victory.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party nominee minus the vote percentage of the candidate finishing immediately behind if Democrats win, or the leading candidate's percentage minus the Democratic nominee's if they lose. Votes for the Democratic Party across multiple party affiliations or duplicate listings are aggregated. Margin ranges are inclusive of their lower bound and exclusive of their upper bound, with no rounding applied. A margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range rather than 5-6%. If Democrats win, the margin is positive; if they lose, it is negative; if they tie for first, the margin is zero. For uncontested races where the Democratic nominee is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the overall sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price of a contract, the lower the implied probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of the race, constantly updated by the actions of informed traders.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official margin of victory reported by election authorities for the U.S. Senate election in Texas. The final result will be determined by the difference in votes received by the winning and losing candidates, as certified by the relevant election officials. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the verified outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 3, 2027. Major campaign events, such as debates or rallies, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected economic news or national political developments could also impact the race. Changes in polling data, particularly if they indicate a significant shift in support for either candidate, would likely cause price adjustments. Finally, any unforeseen events—such as a major scandal or a significant endorsement—could introduce new volatility and move this market substantially.
