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Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Texas Rangers or Cleveland Guardians?

Volume:
$57,893

Cleveland wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Cleveland wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Cleveland wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27,648
N/A
N/A
$20,780
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Texas wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,948
N/A
N/A
$11,718
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,295
N/A
N/A
$10,954
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cleveland Guardians

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Texas Rangers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group tracks which team is winning after exactly 5 complete innings in the MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians. The market resolves based on the score at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with possible outcomes being a Rangers win, Guardians win, or tie.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms reference different scheduled game dates (Jun 29 vs Jun 30) and times (7:10 PM EDT vs 6:40 PM ET), and Kalshi's resolution logic structure (all outcomes resolve to Yes) is logically inconsistent with a competitive betting market.Hero tip: Cross-reference the official MLB schedule to determine the correct game date and time. If the game is postponed, Polymarket explicitly handles makeup games by checking MLB.com; Kalshi does not specify postponement handling. The Kalshi market structure needs clarification before trading, as it does not differentiate between outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market scheduled for Jun 29, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. Resolution states: If Texas wins first 5 innings = Yes, If Cleveland wins first 5 innings = Yes, If tie in first 5 innings = Yes. This structure is logically problematic as all outcomes resolve identically.
  • Polymarket: Market scheduled for June 30 at 6:40 PM ET. Resolution differentiates outcomes: Rangers winning after 5 innings = 'Texas Rangers', Guardians winning after 5 innings = 'Cleveland Guardians', Tied after 5 innings = 'Draw'. Includes explicit postponement and cancellation handling.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for June 30 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

This event determines which team leads or if the score is tied after the first five innings of the Texas vs Cleveland game originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. The Texas outcome resolves Yes if Texas has more runs than Cleveland at the end of the fifth inning. The Cleveland outcome resolves Yes if Cleveland has more runs than Texas at the end of the fifth inning. The Tie outcome resolves Yes if both teams have scored an equal number of runs at the end of the fifth inning; if a tie occurs, the Tie outcome resolves Yes and all team outcomes resolve No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than bookmaker margins, often reflecting sharper consensus on close outcomes. Sportsbooks build in vig and manage liability, whereas prediction markets let traders directly set odds through supply and demand. For first-five-innings markets, prediction platforms can move faster on late-breaking lineup or weather news since they lack the operational overhead of traditional books. This market's odds may diverge from sportsbook lines, especially as game time approaches and new information surfaces.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher changes, and weather forecasts are primary drivers of this market's price action. Injury reports on key batters or bullpen arms can shift early-game expectations significantly. Pre-game betting action at sportsbooks often leaks into prediction markets, moving odds ahead of first pitch. Late-breaking trades or large positions by informed traders can also trigger repricing. Monitor team news feeds and weather updates in the hours before game time for the most volatile trading windows.