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404,028

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2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$27,911

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 5:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,661
N/A
N/A
$2,946
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Texas Rangers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Texas wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,205
N/A
N/A
$16,747
Settled
No
kalshi

Boston wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,014
N/A
N/A
$4,337
Settled
No
polymarket

Boston Red Sox

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers the outcome of the first 5 innings of an MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox. The core question is which team is ahead (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning. Markets across platforms are attempting to capture this single baseball milestone.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Boston win, tie, Texas win) resolve to Yes, rendering the market unresolvable. Additionally, the two platforms reference different game dates (June 13 vs June 14, 2026), suggesting they may not be covering the same event.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's market in its current form—it is logically tautological. Verify with both platforms whether they are referencing the same game. If Kalshi's resolution rules are as stated, the market cannot function as a prediction instrument and should be flagged for cancellation or correction.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market resolves to Yes for Boston win, tie, or Texas win in the first 5 innings of the game scheduled for June 13, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. This creates a logical impossibility: all possible outcomes map to Yes, making the market non-predictive and unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Market resolves to Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, or Draw based on the score at the end of the 5th inning of the game scheduled for June 14, 2026 at 7:20 PM ET. Includes explicit handling for postponements (market remains open) and cancellations (50-50 split). Primary resolution source is official MLB statistics or credible reporting consensus within 24 hours.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for June 14 at 7:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by which team has the higher score at the end of the first five innings of the Texas vs Boston professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 13, 2026 at 4:10 PM EDT. If Texas leads after five innings, the Texas outcome resolves to Yes. If Boston leads after five innings, the Boston outcome resolves to Yes. If the score is tied at the end of five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds directly from trader positions and liquidity, whereas sportsbooks set fixed lines designed to balance action and lock in margins. Prediction market prices often reflect sharper, crowd-sourced estimates because traders have direct financial incentive to price accurately. Sportsbook odds may lag behind market-moving information, while this market adjusts in real time as new data surfaces. Both reflect probability, but prediction markets typically offer tighter spreads and faster repricing during volatile periods.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct order books, user bases, and liquidity pools, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket and Kalshi may also enforce different market rules, fee structures, or settlement timelines that influence how traders price risk. Arbitrage opportunities between platforms are often fleeting due to withdrawal delays and trading costs. Larger disparities typically signal lower liquidity on one venue or divergent trader conviction, and these gaps tend to narrow as informed traders exploit mispricings.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher changes, and injury updates can shift trader expectations significantly before first pitch. Weather conditions, ballpark factors, and recent team form also influence early-inning performance odds. Once the game begins, each run scored or defensive play reshapes probabilities in real time. Late-breaking news on player availability or unexpected roster moves often triggers sharp repricing. Traders monitor pregame betting action and sharp money flows as additional signals of where informed consensus is shifting.