TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 3:40 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of quarterback Cam Ward in a specific football game between Tennessee and New York G, focusing on how many passing touchdowns he throws during the match. The outcomes vary based on whether he achieves minimum thresholds of scored touchdowns. The rules account for scenarios where Ward may not play or snap the ball.
The official rules for these markets collectively govern the resolution based on the number of passing touchdowns Cam Ward records in the Tennessee vs New York G game scheduled for September 27, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of passing touchdowns (1+, 2+, 3+, or 4+), with the market resolving to 'Yes' if Ward meets or exceeds the specified threshold. A key secondary rule applies uniformly across all markets: if Cam Ward is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once Ward takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based strictly on the actual number of passing touchdowns he records during the game. These provisions ensure clarity in cases where a player’s participation is limited or disrupted, while emphasizing that resolution hinges on in-game performance once initial participation occurs.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, aiming to profit regardless of the outcome. This market, driven by informed traders, tends to represent a more accurate probability assessment, though discrepancies can occur. Polls and analysts often predict a similar range of outcomes as seen here, but this market provides a real-money incentive for accurate forecasting, potentially leading to more refined predictions as the event approaches. It’s a fascinating comparison to observe how collective intelligence stacks up against traditional oddsmaking.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the number of passing touchdowns. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The contracts are priced between 0 and 100 cents, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood of that outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Tennessee versus New York college football game will determine the result. The market will settle based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how their positions were affected shortly after the game concludes. It's important to monitor the game closely as the end date approaches to understand potential shifts in the market.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries, particularly the quarterbacks for either team, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected passing game performance. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced leading up to the game could also play a role. Finally, any major shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams' offensive capabilities could drive trading activity and alter the prices in this market.