TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 4:36 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively each team might lead at halftime in an upcoming college football game. Outcomes depend entirely on the point differential at the end of the first half, with various thresholds defining different market resolutions.
All markets resolve based solely on the point difference at the end of the first half of the Temple vs Toledo college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the specified team's lead exceeds that threshold by at least one point. For instance, markets for Toledo winning by over X.X points will resolve 'Yes' only if Toledo leads by more than that number at halftime, while Temple markets function inversely. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, all markets remain active and resolve based on the official halftime result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game completion status.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own modeling and risk management, while this market relies on individuals expressing their beliefs through trading. It’s common to see initial discrepancies that narrow as the event approaches, as traders incorporate new information and adjust their positions. Comparing this market to sportsbook lines can offer insights into public perception versus professional analysis.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price movements are driven by traders’ individual assessments of team strengths, injuries, and other relevant factors influencing the first-half outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual first-half spread of the Temple vs Toledo game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the game's governing body. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment. The final spread will be determined by the point difference at the end of the first half.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Temple or Toledo would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also move the market. Furthermore, significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis or breaking news, could impact trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking information about team strategies or coaching decisions could lead to adjustments in the price of contracts for this market.