TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 4:16 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will dominate the second half of a football game by a specific margin. Outcomes depend entirely on the point differential after the second half ends, excluding any overtime periods.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the second half of play, with overtime points excluded. Each market specifies a different threshold: if the Cincinnati Bengals win the second half by more than a set number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 13.5), the corresponding 'Yes' outcome applies. Conversely, if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers achieve a second-half win exceeding specific margins (from 2.5 to 10.5 points), their respective 'Yes' outcomes trigger. The thresholds create a tiered structure, where higher point differentials satisfy multiple lower-tier conditions for the winning team. All markets share the same secondary rule regarding the exclusion of overtime points from calculations.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading contracts based on their own beliefs about the outcome, leading to potentially different probabilities. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts, offering a unique perspective compared to conventional betting options.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different second-half spreads for the Buccaneers and Bengals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, and the market price fluctuates based on new information and changing expectations. The most actively traded contracts indicate what the market currently believes is the most likely outcome for the second half point spread.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second-half point spread of the Buccaneers-Bengals game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range specified by the purchased contract. The platform will verify the result, ensuring a transparent and accurate settlement process for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Buccaneers or Bengals would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the passing or running game, could also shift the market. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first half, such as a dominant offensive showing or a key turnover, could lead to adjustments in the perceived probability of various second-half spreads, impacting trading activity in this market.