TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 2:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half of their upcoming football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half of their game scheduled for September 13, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if the Bengals win by more than a designated number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 13.5), or if the Buccaneers win by more than a designated number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' Only points scored in the first half count toward these outcomes. All markets are independent, meaning each threshold is evaluated separately, and the resolution depends solely on whether the actual point differential exceeds the specified margin for that particular market.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant number of traders believe a particular spread is likely, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from initial sportsbook lines. It’s common to see prediction markets offer a more accurate forecast, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Buccaneers-Bengals 1st half spread. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the event’s outcome. The more a particular spread is bought, the higher its price rises, and vice versa, dynamically adjusting the market’s assessment of the likely result.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual point spread achieved in the first half of the Buccaneers-Bengals game. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will determine which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Buccaneers or the Bengals would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also move the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as significant shifts in public sentiment, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market.