TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 19, 2026
Closed: Sep 19, 7:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks Taylor Swift's YouTube view performance on a specific date, offering multiple thresholds for global daily views. Each threshold represents a distinct level of audience engagement, allowing participants to speculate on how widely her content will be consumed that day.
Kalshi
Each market specifies a unique threshold for Taylor Swift's global daily YouTube views on September 17, 2026, resolving to 'Yes' if the view count exceeds that threshold. All markets use view counts reported from a New York IP address via YouTube Charts, searching for the artist and selecting 'Global' as the location. No market endorsement exists from YouTube, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement between YouTube and the event organizer. The structure allows participants to evaluate varying levels of expected viewership, with each threshold providing a separate speculative opportunity based on the same underlying data source and geographic reporting method.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for the total views of this event. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or individual analyst predictions. This market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes. Discrepancies between this market and external forecasts may arise due to differing methodologies, data sources, or simply varying interpretations of available information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final views count. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the trading volume, influence how efficiently prices respond to new data. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final views count will be determined by publicly available data sources tracking views on platforms where Taylor Swift’s content is officially released. The resolution will reflect the total number of views accumulated by September 17, 2026, as reported by these sources. The precise methodology for calculating the total views will be outlined in the market’s documentation on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and its resolution. Major announcements regarding Taylor Swift’s promotional activities, such as new music releases, concert dates, or media appearances, would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected events impacting her public image or the overall entertainment landscape could also play a role. Furthermore, shifts in social media trends or changes in viewership patterns on relevant platforms could affect trader sentiment and move this market. Any news relating to the scale or reach of her content will be closely watched.
