TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 13M
- Kalshi
Above 13M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 18, 2026
Closed: Sep 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The event tracks Taylor Swift's YouTube view performance on a specific date, offering multiple thresholds for global daily views. Each threshold represents a distinct outcome based on whether her views exceed the set value, allowing participants to speculate on the magnitude of her audience engagement that day.
Kalshi
All markets share a common framework: each resolves to "Yes" if Taylor Swift achieves strictly more than the specified global daily view threshold on YouTube for September 16, 2026. View counts are sourced from YouTube Charts using a New York IP address to ensure consistency. The markets are strictly analytical and not endorsed by YouTube; references to YouTube are purely descriptive. Thresholds range incrementally from 13M to 16M, with each market operating independently—no market influences another. The outcome for each is binary, determined solely by whether the measured views exceed its unique threshold.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to make a direct comparison between the odds offered in this market and external analyst forecasts. There is a notable difference in methodology: prediction markets reflect the collective wisdom of traders willing to put their capital at risk, while analyst forecasts are based on models and subjective assessments. If analysts predict a certain range of views, this market allows you to assess the probability assigned to outcomes within or outside that range. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market believes analysts are over- or underestimating the potential viewership.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit bids (the price they’re willing to buy a ‘yes’ contract) and asks (the price they’re willing to sell). When a bid and ask match, a trade occurs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of the event occurring. As more information becomes available and more traders participate, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates the implied probability of the outcome being higher or lower than the implied value.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final views count will be sourced from publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination. The resolution will reflect the total views accumulated by Taylor Swift’s content on the specified date. This allows for a clear and unambiguous settlement of the market, based on verifiable data and not subjective interpretation. Traders will then receive payouts based on their positions.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any major announcements regarding Taylor Swift’s content release schedule, promotional activities, or collaborations would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected news related to the platform where the content is released, such as changes to its algorithm or viewership trends, could also move the market. Furthermore, broader cultural events or shifts in public interest surrounding Taylor Swift could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds. Positive or negative media coverage could also play a role in shaping market expectations.
